Coll's Corner: War Will Move To Two Fronts

By: David Coll

OK, I jumped the gun, took a calculated risk and screwed up big time. I’ve taken a lot of (mostly good natured) flak for my last column, when I wrote about Alberta’s next premier – the Right Honourable Gary Mar.

But wouldn’t you know it – between writing and publication, the world changed, just as it did when Ed Stelmach and Naheed Nenshi snuck up the middle in the last two important Alberta elections. Alison Redford – and not Mr. Mar – became the province’s top dog.

Now I’m not surprised she’s shunted Mar off to Hong Kong – it makes sense based on his previous experience as fast Ed’s man in Washington and it was a brilliant way to remove a political rival to boot. Redford made another astute move by appointing Ted Morton as Energy Minister. The new energy boss brings a strong and welcome fiscal focus (no more royalty reviews, please) along with a bit of ‘street cred’ in the eyes of the activist crowd, having introduced LARP (Lower Athabasca Regional Plan) during his reign as minister of sustainable resource development.

Mar notwithstanding, Redford appears to be a more ‘contemporary’ choice for premier. This is more than trading one lawyer for another – Redford’s election is a swing to the left that will probably benefit the party in the long run. The times are definitely a-changin’ and whether Alberta’s first female premiers’ legacy will be one of success or shame (look what it did to Kim Campbell federally), time and experience will tell.

Here’s hoping it will be success – Alberta has some serious work to do to repair its falsely tarnished image, both within Canada and abroad. Nowhere is this gap between reality and fantasy more pronounced than in regard to the oilsands.

The industry produces a commodity without which the modern world would be severely hampered – and it does so within an increasingly stringent regulatory and political climate. No one is tortured or murdered in the process, just the opposite. Livelihood and economic prosperity are created, governments receive healthy tax revenues, and our way of life is greatly enhanced.

In a bout of wishful thinking a year ago, I wrote that the environmental movement had perhaps crested with the admittedly inspired ‘Dirty Oil’ campaign and seemed to be losing momentum. I stand by that statement, Keystone XL notwithstanding.

The tiresome campaigning makes you wonder: how does an idealogue (whose modus operandi has more to do with poking holes into industry than in working toward mutually beneficial solutions) stay fresh? Beliefs aside, wouldn’t you get bored and burnt out just ranting and raving about the same thing over and over?

I think so, especially if your audience (Joe Q. Public via the media) is becoming tired of the ‘same old story’ and increasingly questioning the merits of some of your more specious arguments and appeals to fear, authority and probability.

What’s a poor activist to do?

Well, at some point, maybe you move on, in force, to the next big thing – in Canada, that’s shale gas.

The parallels to oilsands are eerily similar – you’ve got an industry in its infancy that is a logical extension of a fading, conventional business. It’s run by the same companies, the same personalities, and represented for the most part by the same associations. It promises to be a ‘game-changer’ and out come the heavy numbers – new jobs, business development,  opportunity for remote communities and First Nations people. The resource potential is enormous and awaits only a favourable pricing climate to explode into national and international prominence.

Shale gas is already under an ugly spotlight in the U.S. – the main issues being water contamination, methane emissions and even earthquakes attributed to hydraulic fracturing and the mysterious chemical composition of the proprietary fracturing used. A major , headline-dominating shale gas protest has not happened yet in Canada, but it’s coming.

The question is this – will the industry and governments be ready to do battle on two fronts – oilsands and shale gas?

Here’s hoping.